Our consultant, John Telfer, penned this blog in January, following the release of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report. It’s worth revisiting some of the predictions in light of events that have unfolded in 2026.
The WEF report identified geoeconomic confrontation as the leading short-term risk, driven by trade disputes, sanctions, protectionism and the weaponisation of economic relationships. Since then, geopolitical and economic competition has remained a defining feature of the global risk landscape, with businesses operating in a more fragmented and less predictable international system. This has not only occurred in already defined ‘higher-risk’ regions, but also many destinations that would generally be considered low risk. For travel organisers, this is not an abstract issue, as we have seen it affect air access and route viability, currency, insurance and supplier resilience, which all lead to a dip in consumer confidence
The blog highlighted extreme weather as the most important long-term risk and challenged travel businesses to reconsider assumptions about rare events. So far in 2026, heatwaves, wildfires, flooding and severe weather events have caused significant disruption across Europe, North America and Asia, affecting airport operations, transport infrastructure and destination viability. Not only is climate change affecting normal operations more frequently, it’s also now becoming a question of reputational risk as customers will begin to question the product selection decisions. How operators adapt their product offering to account for worsening climate-related events will be key.
Preparedness to support resilience is a key theme in John’s blog. Companies with mature crisis response plans, well-trained teams and agile products have been able to adapt as events unfold, ensuring that while they look after their customers (and staff) affected by disruption, ‘business as usual’ can continue simultaneously. 2026 has shown us that what ‘usual’ now looks like can be very different than what was planned for.
What has changed since January?
Cybersecurity was already high in the WEF rankings, but the practical significance for travel businesses has increased. Cybercrime is continually identified as one of the fastest-growing risks affecting companies that transport people, given the number of systems used from GDS platforms and online booking systems, to payment providers and third-party technology services who potentially hold large amounts of customer data.
AI is dominating conversations. The WEF chart placed adverse outcomes of AI technologies as a significant long-term concern; however, the debate is shifting rapidly from theoretical concerns to practical issues around the likes of fraud, identity verification and deep fakes, misinformation, authenticity/ customer trust and the impact of automated decision-making.
The WEF itself noted one of the sharpest increases in concern was around adverse AI outcomes and for travel companies, fake travel alerts, counterfeit booking confirmations and financial scams have become more credible risks than most experts anticipated at the start of 2026.
Compound risks, leading to some travel organisers seemingly operating in ‘perma-crisis’ mode, have come to the fore this year:
- Heatwave + wildfire + airport disruption
- Political instability + misinformation + civil unrest
- Cyber attack + operational disruption + reputational damage
- War + airspace closure + climate events in other destinations
There are always wider impacts that cascade from individual events, but in 2026, some of the disruption has led to widespread infrastructure failure and because of inter-connected system failures, possible solutions were not always available as they had also failed or were not a viable option due to other issues.
Looking forward, weather-related disruption, unpredictable geopolitical situations and cyber outages/attacks continue to dominate the outlook. How travel businesses prepare for, respond to and communicate during these disruptions will determine how impactful the events will be. Businesses who monitor the outlook, plan and stress-test their responses and begin to take longer-term views on where and how they operate will be able to cope more effectively with the ever-changing global environment.
John’s Blog (January 2026):
Sometimes it is important to stand back and look at the bigger picture, but it could also be argued that it’s more important to step close to the cliff’s edge and peer down. The annual World Economic Forum outlook allows us to do both. At its heart is the Global Risks Perception survey – a fascinating (and terrifying) summary of the views of over 1,300 global leaders and experts across academia, business, government, international organisations and civil society. WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2026.pdf
It’s worth reflecting on a comment in the introduction that “the future is not a single, fixed path but a range of possible trajectories, each dependent on the decisions we make today as a global community”. To this I would also add it is hugely dependant on the decisions that are not made, either out of fear, ignorance, short termism or arrogance.
The responses were collected in August and September 2025. I wonder if they had been done in the last week how different the future would be perceived? Geoeconomic confrontation is now the top concern looking ahead two years – and this was before Venezuela and Greenland.
From a narrower perspective, for travel businesses, it’s an opportunity to sense check our business, to look ahead at some of the macro long-term issues, avoiding the necessary distraction of what lies immediately ahead of us.
If you combine the percentage of respondents who believe that the global outlook will be “Turbulent” (upheavals and elevated risk of global catastrophes) or “Stormy” (global catastrophic risks looming) – 50% expect these outcomes in the next 2 years and 59% in the next 10 years.
What, if anything, should we be doing differently? Or do we just misplacedly hope that it won’t happen to us individually (the normalcy bias – ‘it won’t happen to me@’).
Natural disasters and weather events have the capacity to overwhelm travel businesses locally. In the next two years, the severity of impact is only beaten by Societal polarization, misinformation and disinformation and Geoeconomic confrontation. Look 10 years ahead and it is the most significant of all 30 risk categories. Non-weather-related natural disasters are the areas of least concern, both short and long term. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are seen as an incredibly important long-term risk (coming second to Extreme weather events) but are near the bottom of concerns in the next 2 years.
“So what?” you may think. But start to ask yourself, should you be doing something differently? Are you up to date with the risks in your area of operation?
How aware are your DMCs, and do they know what to do in a crisis? If a once in twenty-year event is now a one in 10-year event, should you be looking at the risks (and response) more attentively?
Will part of your customer base increasingly want to see a “license to operate” and if so, can you display it? How long is it since you reviewed your Public Liability Insurance (beware the effect of compound inflation gnawing away at its true value)?
Should it all go wrong, would you be able to show due diligence? And would your team be ready to deal with a crisis, to support those impacted, to do the right thing – and to protect your reputation?