It’s easy for time to slip away as we become preoccupied with what is immediately before us, neglecting the quieter, long-term threats that rumble ominously in the background. Sudden events demand our attention, while the long-term, more insidious, and potentially business-threatening issues are relegated to a lesser priority.
We have survived another year and, perhaps as individuals, congratulate ourselves on our skill and perseverance (perhaps like any misguided Russian roulette survivor). Will the cylinder be spun again, how frequently and how many bullets will there be this time?!
I’m not religious, and I don’t personally believe thoughts and prayers are a helpful response (other than helpful for the think-er and pray-er) to a crisis or incident. However, I do believe that thought is critical when anticipating adverse events. And do we give enough thought to those potential low-probability events that we are most likely to avoid until they hit us figuratively in the face? A much-quoted maxim about how to go bankrupt is “two ways. Gradually then suddenly”. To paraphrase this to fit those who ponder risks to their business (or those who aren’t and should be doing so), perhaps it would be “nothing, then everything” as a fire or typhoon envelopes their operation and reputation. Hindsight is a luxury. A critical appraisal of actions or inaction without applying learnings is pointless. Foresight buys critical time, allowing us to prepare ourselves and our business for the worst, at least partially. Necessity may be the mother of invention, but a stitch in time saves nine.
How can this thought process be stimulated, when it may not flow naturally or comfortably? Our minds seek information (intentionally or otherwise) to confirm existing beliefs. To have a clearer idea of what the broader world is thinking about, the World Economic Forum Global Risk Report is a good place to start, although it is daunting in length.
A few high (low?) lights for me… The percentage of respondents who feel that global catastrophic risks are looming in the next 2 years is 5%. And 17% within the next 10 years.
This two-year 5% figure is notable as it was only 3% last year. This means the sentiment is getting worse year on year (see figure A above).
A poor attempt at being an optimist would be to think this outlook is the best it will ever be right now! And if it is getting worse, then surely we should try to get ahead of the curve?
Looking at this year in isolation, 14% of the surveyed group believed extreme weather events would present a material crisis on a global scale. I should add that the respondents are not alarmists from a pressure group or a single body. This survey is based on over 900 responses from experts from Civil Society, International Organisations, Academia, Government, and private-sector businesses. And that is one of its great values – it’s not just a tourism-related echo chamber (see figure B above).
Among this range of experts, extreme weather events are ranked as the second most significant impact over the next two years. Critically, all four of the top issues projected for the next decade are environmentally related (see figure C above). But, keeping to the short term, take a moment to see if any of the categories prompt thought. Are you operating in any politically fragile states – what are your plans for monitoring what is happening? Are you looking at information from non-UK source markets? Social polarisation – could that affect
customers overseas? Taking a very wide interpretation, should you be considering the effects of over-tourism (and the part you may be playing)? Have you considered cyber-attacks – and how your company would function if caught up in one? Do you operate in any areas where pollution can significantly affect a visit? Several cities in Asia spring to mind amongst others. What do you advise your customers if this is a regular occurrence? Are there human rights issues in your supply chain?
The 10-year horizon may seem like an impossible time away – and can be measured in the number of Prime Ministers or CEOs or MDs of your company. Perhaps an easier way to consider these risks is to replace the 10 with five years. Is there anything you should be doing right now to mitigate these risks or potentially see as an opportunity? Splitting the issues demographically, the under-30’s number one concern is extreme weather events. Could this affect recruitment?
Are you ready for the question “Are you ready?”? To return to the most relevant question facing many travel companies – Do you understand your weather-related risks? Are you comfortable in your operating season? Do you have plans for when heatwaves affect activities? Are you exposing your customers and staff to fire or storm risks? If you tolerate these risks to your customers, staff and business, have you a plan in case these events materialise? Have you practised it? Tested it? How would hindsight treat your preparation and response through the prism of a judge’s scrutiny, a journalist’s probing or a bereaved relatives search for an answer?
Some could argue that these should have been considered years ago, but failing that, the best possible time is right now to deal with the immediate risks staring at us with an unblinking gaze. It can be tempting to avoid that gaze, but it is better to embrace uncomfortable possibilities now, take action to understand them better, flex your approach to reduce risks, and have to have a plan in place for when you need it. The alternative is, quite often, unthinkable.